empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
03.06.2025 09:52 AM
Deteriorating U.S. Economic Conditions Bring Fed Rate Cuts Closer (Potential for Continued Decline in #USDX and EUR/JPY Pair)
Open trading account Open demo account

Although the market has largely stopped reacting to incoming economic data—especially from the U.S.—and is more focused on the geopolitical and economic moves of Donald Trump, who is steering all processes manually, it is worth paying attention to this week's reports that will signal the prospects for the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts.

Starting with Monday's release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI for May, the report showed a continued contraction in the real sector. The index fell to 48.5 from 48.7, against a forecast of a rise to 49.3. This indicates that the manufacturing sector continues to slow, fully in line with the negative GDP dynamics seen in Q1 of this year. Meanwhile, the ISM Services PMI rose to 52.0 from 50.2, although slightly below the forecast of 52.3.

The data was mixed, but overall, it points to the U.S. economy being in a difficult position. Trump's geopolitical and economic maneuvers have yet to realize his grand vision of MAGA (Make America Great Again). The U.S. is displaying apparent weakness on the geopolitical front, which is spilling over into its domestic political and economic life. The near-criminal strong-arming of trade partners is producing only partial results. America's main economic rival, China, is still holding firm and appears capable of doing so for quite some time.

What Does Trump's Leadership Threaten the Markets With?

It seems we can expect endless cycles of threats and retreats toward trade partners. This will have a negative impact on global financial markets, discourage investment in dollar-denominated assets, and push investors away from U.S. Treasuries. The U.S. Dollar Index (ICE) could soon test the 98-point level in this environment. After a slight pullback, gold prices could resume their rise toward the recent local high at 3435.00.

The heavy negative news flow will weigh on investor appetite for active investments. After Trump graciously paused the imposition of extreme tariffs on China and the EU, he now threatens to double tariffs on steel imports to 50%. Essentially, he is looking for weak spots in his competitors to strike and extract concessions—but whether he will succeed remains a major question. Meanwhile, as he maneuvers, markets will remain volatile, nervously fluctuating up and down.

In this week's key data releases, attention is on the eurozone inflation reports, which are expected to decline from 2.2% to 2.0% year-over-year. If confirmed, the European Central Bank will again face pressure to cut interest rates—likely by 0.25% at this week's meeting.

Additionally, U.S. labor market data will be crucial, starting with the ADP report on Wednesday and the Labor Department's report on Friday. Weak job growth numbers would add further pressure on the dollar, moving the Fed closer to cutting rates. This would support further gains in stock markets, but cryptocurrencies might come under pressure.

Of course, the anticipated conversation between Trump and Xi Jinping remains in the spotlight and could ease or escalate tensions between the countries.

Assessing the broader picture, it seems high market volatility will persist this week.

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

Forecast of the Day

#USDX

The Dollar Index might continue to decline toward 98.00 due to negative sentiment and labor market data. A break below 98.65 could amplify downward pressure. A good selling point could be near 98.50.

EUR/JPY

The pair is consolidating above the 163.00 level. The ECB's decision to cut rates by 0.25% and Christine Lagarde's subsequent press conference could weigh on the pair. On this wave, the pair could fall toward 162.10. A sell point could be around 162.90.

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Analytical News
Investors confused: data weak, policy hawkish, hopes pinned on bonds Treasury yields pared earlier losses after Fed Chair Powell's remarks. Middle East tensions linger as Iranian leader rebuffs Trump's surrender demands. Swiss National Bank cuts rates to zero. Stora Enso
14:05 2025-06-19 +02:00
1015
Analytical News
Investors are confused: data is weak, policy is aggressive, hope is in bonds Treasury yields pare previous losses after Fed Chairman Powell's speech Middle East concerns remain Iranian leader rejects Trump's demand for capitulation Swiss National Bank cuts interest rates to zero Stora
Thomas Frank
13:58 2025-06-19 +02:00
1015
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Bank of England to Keep Rates Unchanged

Today, the Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates at 4.25% and signal that it is maintaining its approach of one cut every other meeting, as policymakers
Jakub Novak 11:02 2025-06-19 UTC+2

The Fed Maintains Its Previous Position

The U.S. dollar responded with growth, while risk assets such as the euro and pound declined. Following yesterday's meeting, Federal Reserve officials stated they expect two interest rate cuts
Jakub Novak 10:58 2025-06-19 UTC+2

The Iran-Israel War Has Yet to Exert Significant Negative Influence on Markets (Limited downside risk for gold and upward momentum for #USDX remains possible)

As expected, the U.S. central bank left all key monetary policy parameters unchanged, once again citing ongoing uncertainty about the future state of the national economy—a factor that has become
Pati Gani 09:14 2025-06-19 UTC+2

The Market Keeps Its Options Open

While the White House and the Federal Reserve are in wait-and-see mode, the market has also decided to hold steady. Donald Trump has yet to make a final decision
Marek Petkovich 09:08 2025-06-19 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on June 19? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Thursday. The only points of attention today will be Christine Lagarde's speeches and the results of the Bank of England meeting, which will
Paolo Greco 06:45 2025-06-19 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – June 19: UK Inflation and the Bank of England Meeting

The GBP/USD currency pair traded relatively calmly on Wednesday, though the day before, it had posted a substantial decline in the second half of the session—more than 100 pips
Paolo Greco 04:02 2025-06-19 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – June 19: Trump Continues to Work Wonders

The EUR/USD currency pair traded more calmly on Wednesday than the previous day. However, the previous day's significant movement also began only closer to the evening. It was not related
Paolo Greco 04:02 2025-06-19 UTC+2

GBP/USD. Inflation, the Bank of England, and Geopolitics

GBP/USD traders did not react to the UK inflation growth report that was published on Wednesday, just before the June Bank of England meeting. The focus of the market remains
Irina Manzenko 00:42 2025-06-19 UTC+2

The Canadian Dollar Still Looks Like a Favorite

Markets remain cautious as several high-impact events loom that could significantly alter the risk balance—namely, the FOMC meeting on Wednesday evening and a potential U.S. intervention in the war between
Kuvat Raharjo 00:42 2025-06-19 UTC+2

The Dollar Is Caught in a Vicious Cycle

The U.S. dollar has become an outcast—not just globally, but even at home. The White House supports everything from stock indices to Bitcoin and even gold through policy uncertainty
Marek Petkovich 00:42 2025-06-19 UTC+2

Top analytics

EUR/USD Overview – June 18: Will the Fed Save the Dollar?
03:57 2025-06-18
Fundamental analysis
EUR/USD Forecast for June 18, 2025
05:49 2025-06-18
Technical analysis
Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on June 18: Pound Remains in a Flat Range
03:56 2025-06-18
Trading plan
Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on June 18: The Dollar Rises Paradoxically
03:56 2025-06-18
Trading plan
USD/JPY Forecast for June 18, 2025
04:58 2025-06-18
Technical analysis
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.