empty
InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing
InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
12.06.2025 10:15 AM
EUR/USD. June 12. A Setback for the Dollar
Open trading account Open demo account

Good day, dear traders! On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement after rebounding from the support zone of 1.1374–1.1380. It successfully consolidated above the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1454, which gives traders grounds to expect further growth toward the next retracement level of 100.0% at 1.1574. A rebound from this level would favor the US dollar and a slight decline, while consolidation above it would increase the likelihood of continued growth.

This image is no longer relevant

Wave Situation on the Hourly Chart

The wave picture on the hourly chart remains clear. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the last upward wave surpassed the previous peak. Therefore, the trend currently remains bullish. The latest news about increased tariffs on steel and aluminum forced the bears to retreat again, and the lack of real progress in US-China negotiations discourages them from launching new attacks. A trend reversal to bearish would only be confirmed by consolidation below the 1.1374–1.1380 zone.

Macroeconomic Background

Wednesday's news backdrop was relatively light, but even a single US inflation report triggered a sharp reaction from bullish traders. In my opinion, there was nothing particularly alarming in the report that would warrant such a strong retreat by the bears. However, the market interpreted the report in its own way.

The Consumer Price Index rose from 2.3% YoY to 2.4% YoY. The Core CPI remained unchanged at 2.8% YoY. Traders were expecting slightly higher figures, and the absence of stronger inflation was seen as a signal that the Federal Reserve may soon resume monetary policy easing. If inflation is not increasing as Jerome Powell anticipated, and economic growth is slowing, then stimulus is needed, and such high rates may no longer be justified. Of course, inflation could still rise, especially if Trump hikes tariffs further. For this reason, I do not believe the Fed will cut rates at the next meeting. But the market thinks otherwise.

This image is no longer relevant

H4 Chart Overview

On the 4-hour chart, the pair climbed to the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1495 and consolidated above it. This opens the way for continued growth toward the next target at 1.1680. The upward channel points to a bullish trend. Only consolidation below 1.1495 would suggest a possible reversal in favor of the dollar and a move toward the channel's lower boundary. Currently, there are no forming divergences.

This image is no longer relevant

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

During the most recent reporting week, professional traders closed 1,540 long contracts and 4,830 short contracts. The sentiment among the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish, primarily due to Trump. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 203,000, compared to 120,000 shorts, and the gap continues to widen. The euro remains in demand, while the dollar does not. The situation remains unchanged.

For 18 consecutive weeks, large players have been closing short positions and increasing long positions. Despite the significant divergence in monetary policy between the European Central Bank and the Fed, Trump's policies carry more weight for traders due to their potential to trigger a recession and other long-term structural problems in the US economy.

News Calendar for the US and Eurozone:

  • US – Producer Price Index (13:30 London time)
  • US – Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 London time)

The economic calendar contains only two minor events on June 12, suggesting that market sentiment on Thursday is unlikely to be influenced by fundamentals.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

  • Sell the pair upon a rebound from 1.1574, targeting 1.1454 on the hourly chart.
  • Buy positions were previously advised on a rebound from the 1.1374–1.1380 zone, targeting 1.1454.
  • A close above 1.1454 allows for holding long positions with a target of 1.1574.

Fibonacci Levels:

  • Built from 1.1574 to 1.1066 on the hourly chart
  • Built from 1.1214 to 1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.
Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Technical analysis
Forecast for EUR/USD on June 19, 2025 On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair resumed its decline after a short pause and by Thursday morning settled right around the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1454. A rebound from this
Samir Klishi
11:20 2025-06-19 +02:00
1015
Technical analysis
Forecast for GBP/USD on June 19, 2025 On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its decline on Tuesday and Wednesday after bouncing off the resistance zone of 1.3611–1.3633 and closed below the support zone of 1.3425–1.3444
Samir Klishi
11:13 2025-06-19 +02:00
1015
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Forecast for EUR/USD on June 19, 2025

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair resumed its decline after a short pause and by Thursday morning settled right around the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1454. A rebound from this
Samir Klishi 11:20 2025-06-19 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on June 19, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its decline on Tuesday and Wednesday after bouncing off the resistance zone of 1.3611–1.3633 and closed below the support zone of 1.3425–1.3444
Samir Klishi 11:13 2025-06-19 UTC+2

GBP/USD: The British Pound Faces the Prospect of a Bank of England Rate Cut

The British currency is under pressure due to the growing likelihood of another divergence in interest rate levels between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England—not in the latter's
Pati Gani 09:55 2025-06-19 UTC+2

XAG/USD. Analysis and Forecast

At present, silver is consolidating after reaching its highest level since February 2012, following significant gains in the previous session. It is trading just above the round level of $37.00
Irina Yanina 19:13 2025-06-18 UTC+2

Forex forecast 18/06/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USDX, GOLD and Bitcoin

Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful
Sebastian Seliga 18:24 2025-06-18 UTC+2

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for June 18-22, 2025: sell below 1.1540 (21 SMA - 7/8 Murray)

Early in the American session, the euro is trading under bearish pressure around 1.1502, below the 21-SMA and within the uptrend channel formed since early May. If the euro price
Dimitrios Zappas 14:16 2025-06-18 UTC+2

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for June 18-22, 2025: sell below $3,404 (21 SMA - 8/8 Murray)

The price of gold has been consolidating below 3,400 and below the 21SMA. After reaching the 8/8 Murray level at 3,437, gold underwent a technical correction
Dimitrios Zappas 13:00 2025-06-18 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on June 18, 2025

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the 100.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1574, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and fell toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1454
Samir Klishi 11:57 2025-06-18 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on June 18, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its decline on Tuesday after bouncing off the 1.3611–1.3633 resistance zone and reached the support zone at 1.3425–1.3444. A rebound from this
Samir Klishi 11:45 2025-06-18 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of AUD/JPY Cross Currency Pairs, Wednesday June 18, 2025.

With the appearance of Divergence between the price movement of AUD/JPY with the Stochastic Oscillator indicator on the 4-hour chart and the price position which is still above
Arief Makmur 07:44 2025-06-18 UTC+2

Top analytics

EUR/USD Overview – June 18: Will the Fed Save the Dollar?
03:57 2025-06-18
Fundamental analysis
EUR/USD Forecast for June 18, 2025
05:49 2025-06-18
Technical analysis
Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on June 18: Pound Remains in a Flat Range
03:56 2025-06-18
Trading plan
Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on June 18: The Dollar Rises Paradoxically
03:56 2025-06-18
Trading plan
USD/JPY Forecast for June 18, 2025
04:58 2025-06-18
Technical analysis
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.