While the euro shows no intention of yielding to the U.S. dollar, Christine Lagarde is about to face criticism over her intention to continue leading the European Central Bank. The President, who will hold a press conference on Thursday to present the Governing Council's latest policy decision, was selected for the top position at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland. Although her term in Frankfurt officially runs for another 2.5 years, questions about her departure are already being raised.
Along with the widely expected eighth rate cut, the ECB President will present new consumer price forecasts. According to the latest data, inflation slowed to 1.9% in May — below the 2% target for the first time in eight months. This achievement could work in Lagarde's favor, allowing her to claim that restoring price stability in the eurozone was one of the key objectives she aimed to meet.
Beyond Lagarde's public statement of determination to complete her term, the ECB has not directly denied reports of her potential early resignation. This suggests that Lagarde may have considered stepping down ahead of schedule. The ECB merely stated that President Lagarde has always been fully committed to fulfilling her mission and is determined to finish her term. If the President wanted to resign immediately, now would be as good a time as any, given that she could claim to have fulfilled her main mission.
Meanwhile, the selection of a new ECB President would take place during a period of relative political stability in the core eurozone countries.
Lagarde previously resigned as Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund in 2019 to take her position in Frankfurt. She had also publicly denied interest in the ECB job in an interview with the FT back in 2018.
However, there are strong reasons for her to stay until the end of her term: The eurozone needs as much reliable leadership as possible in policy-making as it faces global shocks driven by temporary tariffs and the trade uncertainties caused by the U.S. President Donald Trump. There is also the question of why she would want to leave what is arguably the second most important central bank position in the world, after the chair of the Federal Reserve.
In any case, Lagarde's unexpected resignation from the ECB would trigger a short-term market shock — something the eurozone hardly needs right now. The hard-earned stability and predictability of recent years would be at risk. Questions about her successor and potential changes in the ECB's policy direction would spark speculation and market jitters, inevitably affecting the region's investment attractiveness. Moreover, such a leadership crisis could damage trust in European institutions as a whole. In an environment of growing political fragmentation and populist sentiment, stable and competent governance is a key factor for maintaining the unity and future confidence in the eurozone. On the other hand, beyond the short-term turmoil, Lagarde's resignation could open the door to necessary reforms and a rethinking of ECB priorities. A new leader, bringing fresh perspectives and a willingness to innovate, could introduce new ideas in monetary policy and stimulate economic growth.
As for the current technical outlook for EUR/USDBuyers now need to focus on reclaiming the 1.1390 level. Only then can they aim for a test of 1.1260. From there, a climb to 1.1460 is possible, but achieving this without support from major players will be quite difficult. The ultimate target would be the high at 1.1490. In case of a decline, I expect significant buying activity only around 1.1353. If there are no buyers there, it would be preferable to wait for a new low at 1.1314 or open long positions from 1.1270.
While the euro shows no intention of yielding to the U.S. dollar, Christine Lagarde is about to face criticism over her intention to continue leading the European Central Bank. The President, who will hold a press conference on Thursday to present the Governing Council's latest policy decision, was selected for the top position at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland. Although her term in Frankfurt officially runs for another 2.5 years, questions about her departure are already being raised.
