empty
16.06.2025 12:10 PM
GBP/USD. Analysis and Forecast

This image is no longer relevant

Today, the GBP/USD pair is attempting to regain positive momentum while remaining on the defensive. Traders prefer to wait for the release of key data before opening directional positions.

The latest UK consumer inflation figures are scheduled for release on Wednesday, just ahead of the Bank of England's meeting on Thursday. This event will play a crucial role in shaping the direction of the British pound, as the inflation data could influence expectations regarding monetary policy and, consequently, the GBP/USD exchange rate.

Additionally, the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is expected on Wednesday, which will significantly impact the U.S. dollar. These events may serve as major catalysts for the GBP/USD pair's movement, helping determine its short-term trajectory. Traders should closely monitor these releases to adjust their positions according to the new data and market expectations.

The weaker-than-expected UK GDP reading published on Friday showed a 0.3% economic contraction in April — more than anticipated. This result has heightened expectations that the Bank of England may adopt a more aggressive rate-cutting stance in the near future.

At the same time, the U.S. dollar is receiving support from global demand for safe-haven assets, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This factor is limiting the upside potential for GBP/USD, as investors seek shelter in more reliable assets, strengthening the dollar and capping gains in the pound against the greenback.

Nonetheless, expectations that the Federal Reserve may resume its rate-cutting cycle as early as September — due to signs of easing inflation in the U.S. — are restraining bullish sentiment on the dollar, preventing it from posting strong gains.

In addition, the generally positive risk sentiment in global markets acts as a limiting factor on safe-haven demand for the dollar. This provides some support for the GBP/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, as long as oscillators on the daily chart remain in positive territory and far from overbought levels, the path of least resistance for the pair continues to be upward.

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Irina Yanina
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

GBP/USD Overview – July 18: Is the Market Tired of the Dollar and Trump?

The GBP/USD currency pair once again leaned toward decline on Thursday. After the British pound strengthened on Wednesday evening following another report about Powell's dismissal, the dollar quickly recovered. However

Paolo Greco 03:56 2025-07-18 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – July 18: Trump Will Keep Trying to Fire Powell for Another Year

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its steady decline throughout Thursday. As a reminder, the forex market experienced an "explosion" on Wednesday evening. Donald Trump once again attempted to either fire

Paolo Greco 03:56 2025-07-18 UTC+2

Farce, Absurdity, and a Drama Series

Since Donald Trump continues his attempts to remove Jerome Powell from the position of FOMC Chair, it's worth taking a closer look at this topic. All recent news is well

Chin Zhao 00:26 2025-07-18 UTC+2

The Bearish Trend in USD/CAD Is Nearing Its End

Canada's Consumer Price Index rose in June from 1.7% y/y to 1.9%, while core inflation increased from 2.5% y/y to 2.7%. This growth remains within an acceptable range —

Kuvat Raharjo 00:26 2025-07-18 UTC+2

AUD/USD: Knockout for the Aussie

The Australian dollar fell sharply against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, updating local price lows. The decline is driven not only by the overall strengthening of the greenback but also

Irina Manzenko 00:25 2025-07-18 UTC+2

The Dollar Doesn't Believe in Myths

What if the idea of the Federal Reserve's independence is just a myth? JPMorgan believes exactly that. The firm argues that the central bank has always interacted with the White

Marek Petkovich 00:25 2025-07-18 UTC+2

EUR/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the EUR/JPY pair is regaining positive momentum after yesterday's pullback from the 173.25 level, which now marks the yearly high, and is maintaining intraday growth. Spot prices are currently

Irina Yanina 19:08 2025-07-17 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

On Thursday, the USD/CAD pair received support from buyers and rose above the key 1.3700 level, driven by the overall strengthening of the US dollar. Spot prices have corrected

Irina Yanina 12:14 2025-07-17 UTC+2

Not Everyone at the Fed Agrees with Powell

Given the current confusion within the Federal Reserve and the mounting pressure on its Chair Jerome Powell, not all policymakers agree that interest rates should remain elevated. Thomas Barkin, President

Jakub Novak 11:43 2025-07-17 UTC+2

The Dollar Was Shaken Yesterday — Here's Why

The U.S. dollar came under heavy selling pressure yesterday following media reports suggesting that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell might be dismissed in the near future. This unexpected development triggered

Jakub Novak 11:38 2025-07-17 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.