The wave pattern on the 4-hour EUR/USD chart has remained unchanged for several consecutive months. The upward segment of the trend is still developing, while the news background continues to support all currencies except the dollar. The trade war initiated by Donald Trump was intended to increase budget revenues and eliminate the trade deficit. However, these targets have not been achieved so far; trade deals are being signed with difficulty, and Trump's "One Big Law" will add 3 trillion dollars to the U.S. national debt in the coming years. The market holds a very negative view of Trump's performance during his first six months and sees his actions as a threat to American stability and well-being.

At present, wave 3 is presumably still unfolding and may develop into a much longer wave than it currently appears. However, the internal structure has taken on a five-wave form, which suggests it could already be complete. If this assumption holds, then the rise in quotes will continue in the coming months, though in the short term we may see a corrective wave pattern develop. The chances of Trump abandoning his trade policy are virtually nonexistent.

The EUR/USD pair fell by 55 basis points on Thursday, but it's important to note that the day before, it had unexpectedly risen by 150 points. By this morning, the reason behind this became clear. Once again, Donald Trump decided to fire Jerome Powell, and U.S. media amplified the topic. The media can be understood: the louder the headline, the greater the public interest—hence more profit. Yet the market keeps "falling for it" every time. First, Trump talks about firing Powell. A few hours later, he changes his mind. Then he starts looking for a replacement. A few hours after that, he looks for excuses to fire Powell. Meanwhile, the media blows it all out of proportion. This is why we saw the kind of price action on Wednesday evening that had no actual basis in facts.

What are the facts at this point? Jerome Powell is still in office and performing his duties. Trump has been trying to fire him for 6 or 7 years now (with a four-year break). The U.S. president is no longer just trying to fire Powell—he is attempting to create working conditions so hostile that Powell cannot do his job. Currently, Trump is accusing Powell of unjustified expenditures on renovating the Federal Reserve building, as if Powell were personally collecting funds from the Treasury and doing the renovations himself. Trump essentially accuses the FOMC Chair of fraud. Even though Powell doesn't own the building, and if there really were fraud, the traces would be found in Powell's accounts. In short, the situation is absurd—and the U.S. media make it even more absurd.

General Conclusions

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument continues to form an upward trend segment. The wave structure remains entirely dependent on the news background, particularly Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy, with no positive developments in sight. The targets for this trend segment may reach up to the 1.25 level. Therefore, I continue to consider long positions targeting the area near 1.1875, which corresponds to the 161.8% Fibonacci level, and possibly higher. In the near term, a corrective wave pattern is expected to form, so new long positions on the euro should be opened after this correction completes.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and easy to interpret. Complex structures are harder to trade and often involve changes.
2. If you're unsure of what's happening in the market, it's better to stay out.
3. There can never be 100% certainty about market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.