Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 143.75 in the first half of the day coincided with the MACD indicator just starting to rise from the zero level, confirming a valid entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by more than 40 points.

In the second half of the day, attention will shift to the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. and changes in labor productivity in the non-manufacturing sector. Only very strong data could support the ongoing bullish trend observed in the U.S. dollar. Otherwise, weaker figures may trigger a correction, opening opportunities for short-term dollar selling. However, the sustainability of such a correction will depend on fundamental factors and overall market sentiment. It is also important to consider the link between labor market data and general economic activity. Steady growth in employment and productivity is a key indicator of economic health and could support the dollar in the long run.

Intraday strategy will be based on the execution of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 144.86 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 145.51 (thicker green line on the chart). At 145.51, I plan to exit the buy trade and open a sell trade in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point pullback). Bullish continuation today is only likely with strong data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 144.28 level while MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a bullish reversal. A rise toward 144.86 and 145.51 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a break below 144.28 (red line on the chart), which could lead to a sharp drop in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 143.59, where I'll exit the trade and open a buy trade in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Downside pressure on the pair today is unlikely. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD is below zero and just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of 144.86 while MACD is in overbought territory. This would cap the pair's upward potential and prompt a bearish reversal. A drop toward 144.28 and 143.59 can be expected.

Chart Guide:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;
• Thick green line – projected price for setting Take Profit or manually exiting, as further growth is unlikely beyond this level;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;
• Thick red line – projected price for setting Take Profit or manually exiting, as further decline is unlikely below this level;
• MACD Indicator – rely on overbought/oversold zones for market entry decisions.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when deciding to enter the market. Before major economic reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, your deposit could quickly be lost—especially if you're not using money management principles and are trading with large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear plan like the one shown above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market fluctuations are a losing strategy for intraday traders.