
The United States has made some unexpected accusations against Ireland and Switzerland, alleging that the two countries may be engaging in currency manipulation. This came as a surprise, especially after the US Treasury stated in its first semiannual report that none of America's major trading partners had manipulated their currencies in 2024. However, the "monitoring list" of countries requiring close attention has now expanded to nine, with Ireland and Switzerland newly added. A dramatic twist indeed.
Meanwhile, China managed to avoid the currency manipulator label despite "depreciation pressures" on the yuan. Nevertheless, the US Treasury Department issued a stern warning to Beijing, stating that China "stands out among our major trading partners in its lack of transparency around its exchange rate policies and practices." The Treasury signaled that it may designate China a manipulator in the future if sufficient evidence emerges.
According to the report, the current monitoring list includes China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Vietnam, Germany, Ireland, and Switzerland. Countries are automatically placed on the list if they meet two of three criteria: a trade surplus with the US of at least $15 billion, a current account surplus above 3% of GDP, and persistent, one-sided currency purchases.
Ireland and Switzerland were included due to their substantial trade and current account surpluses with the US. The Swiss National Bank previously rejected accusations of currency manipulation, stating that it would continue to act in the national interest and noting that a strong franc had helped dampen inflation in recent months.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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