Oil prices fell on Tuesday, and for the second quarter, they may show the worst performance since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The main factor behind this is the expectation of a swift recovery in supplies through the Strait of Hormuz due to diplomatic contacts between the US and Iran.

Brent crude futures have lost nearly 20% in the second quarter, with prices dropping to the low $ 70s per barrel—a sharp reversal after the shock highs that followed the US military strike on Iran in late February. The sell-off has accelerated in recent weeks as the market increasingly factors in the prospect of renewed exports from the Middle East, despite conflicting public statements from Washington and Tehran about the progress of negotiations.

President Donald Trump stated on Monday via his Truth Social platform that "Iran requested a meeting. It will take place tomorrow in Doha," and the White House confirmed that special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner would travel to Qatar. At the same time, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, Ismail Baghaei, said Tehran would not conduct "negotiations with the American side at any level" in the coming days, emphasizing that the Iranian delegation was only heading to Doha to discuss the unfreezing of assets and the fulfillment of ceasefire conditions with Qatari mediators.

This ambiguity has kept the markets on edge, but the broader trend, namely the memorandum of understanding signed this month and the mutual cessation of hostilities, has convinced traders and analysts of the possibility of a recovery in supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.

Leading banks are also revising their forecasts downward. Morgan Stanley has lowered its Brent forecast for the third and fourth quarters of 2026 to $75 per barrel for the second time in two weeks, and forecasts $70 by the end of 2027. The bank now expects a global oil surplus of 4.8 million barrels per day in 2027, amid a recovery in Middle Eastern exports, steady US production, and weak demand from China.

Similarly, Goldman Sachs has revised its forecasts downward, indicating a growing consensus among major institutional players that the period of supply-shortage fears is coming to an end.

The market situation is further complicated by political demands from producer countries. Last week, Iraq intensified its pressure within OPEC, advocating for a higher production ceiling: Oil Minister Basim Muhammad Khudair called for a target of 5 million barrels per day. According to Reuters, this demand is driven by financial difficulties stemming from export disruptions during the conflict, as well as new investment commitments in production by BP, TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, and Chevron.

The Iraqi Oil Ministry briefly entertained the possibility of leaving OPEC if its quota is not increased—a threat that was soon rescinded, clarifying that it did not reflect the government's official position. Iraq's current quota stands at 4.378 million barrels per day; however, actual production is significantly lower due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Three Iraqi officials told Reuters that the country is targeting a figure of 7 million barrels per day in the coming years—an ambition that, with successful diplomacy and the restoration of export corridors, could have significant implications for the global oil market.