Trade Analysis and Trading Advice for the Japanese Yen

The price test at 161.62 occurred at a time when the indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for a short position on the dollar. As a result, the pair declined by more than 20 points.

Next, important economic indicators from the United States are expected. The release of Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, and Composite PMI may significantly influence the balance of power in the USD/JPY pair. In addition, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index will also be published. These metrics are important indicators of the U.S. economy, as they reflect sentiment in its two most significant sectors.

Commentary on these indices typically includes an analysis of factors influencing the current situation, such as price pressures, supply chain conditions, and consumer demand. This information will serve as an important guide for traders, as internal economic analysis may either restore or weaken demand for the U.S. dollar. Therefore, traders will closely analyze each figure in search of trends that could influence future Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus mainly on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at an entry point around 161.59 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 161.87 (thicker green line on the chart). At 161.87, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point pullback. A further rise in the pair is possible today, but it remains limited. Important: before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 161.42 level while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. A move toward 161.59 and 161.87 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below 161.42 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a sharp decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 161.08, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point rebound. Downward pressure on the pair may return today if the central bank intervenes. Important: before selling, ensure that the MACD is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 161.59 while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward 161.42 and 161.08 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument.
• Thick green line – expected take-profit level or manual profit-taking level, as further upside above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument.
• Thick red line – expected take-profit level or manual profit-taking level, as further downside below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – entry decisions should be guided by overbought and oversold conditions.

Important Note

Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when entering the market. Before important fundamental releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp volatility. If you decide to trade during news events, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not apply proper money management and instead trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a fundamentally losing intraday strategy.