empty
17.07.2025 11:30 AM
The Fed Needs to Be Patient

While the U.S. dollar continues to show high volatility driven by Trump's statements, Susan Collins, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, once again stated in an interview that the U.S. central bank should remain patient when considering interest rate cuts. She suggested that strong corporate and household balance sheets could mitigate the impact of tariffs on the economy.

This image is no longer relevant

"Persistently favorable economic conditions overall allow the Fed time to thoroughly assess a wide range of incoming data," Collins said in her remarks. "Thus, in my view, a deliberately patient approach to monetary policy remains appropriate at this time."

It is worth recalling that this year the Fed leadership has kept interest rates unchanged, awaiting the consequences of President Donald Trump's aggressive policy shifts—especially in the area of trade. Most officials expect tariffs to drive inflation higher, and the latest inflation data supports this view.

This wait-and-see stance has certainly sparked debate among economists and analysts. Some see it as unjustified, arguing that the current high rates may trigger a recession. Others support the Fed's approach, pointing to the inflation risk and calling the caution warranted.

Consumer price data released on Tuesday showed that core inflation in June rose less than expected. However, tariffs have begun to influence prices for certain goods. "Overall, financial data suggests that the impact of tariffs may be somewhat softened by companies reducing profit margins and consumers continuing to spend despite higher prices," Collins said. "As a result, the negative impact of tariffs on labor market conditions and economic growth may be more limited."

Collins also noted that the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston has developed a new methodology to quantitatively assess how rising border prices affect domestic consumer prices. She added that she expects the Fed's preferred core inflation measure will likely reach around 3% by the end of the year before beginning to decline again. In May, it stood at 2.7%.

Technical Outlook for EUR/USD

Currently, buyers must focus on reclaiming the 1.1655 level. Only then will a test of 1.1690 become feasible. From there, the pair may climb to 1.1720, though this would be challenging without support from major players. The furthest upward target remains the 1.1770 high. In the event of a decline, significant buyer interest is expected only around 1.1590. If no support appears there, it would be prudent to wait for a retest of the 1.1550 low or consider opening long positions from 1.1495.

Technical Outlook for GBP/USD

Pound buyers need to break through the nearest resistance at 1.3420. Only then can they aim for 1.3464, a level that may be difficult to breach. The furthest upward target is the 1.3500 level. If the pair falls, bears will attempt to regain control at 1.3375. Should they succeed, a break below this range would deliver a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push GBP/USD toward the 1.3335 low, with potential for a move down to 1.3290.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Pavel Vlasov
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the pair is declining toward the psychological level of 1.3700. Traders have increased their expectations of a September Fed interest rate cut following a weaker-than-forecast July U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls

Irina Yanina 13:14 2025-08-08 UTC+2

AUD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

Diverging expectations regarding the policies of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Japan are holding back further growth in spot prices. Today, the AUD/JPY pair

Irina Yanina 11:26 2025-08-08 UTC+2

A new Fed member – a potential source of risk

Yesterday, the dollar fell in response to news that U.S. President Donald Trump had appointed Council of Economic Advisers Chair Steven Miran as a member of the Federal Reserve Board

Jakub Novak 10:16 2025-08-08 UTC+2

The Market Is Heading for a Reversal

The TACO strategy — "Trump Always Chickens Out" — may not always work in favor of the U.S. stock market. Investors believed that the White House had won the trade

Marek Petkovich 10:06 2025-08-08 UTC+2

Division within the Fed remains on edge

At the start of the week, it appeared that more members of the Federal Reserve were adopting a softer stance on the future of interest rates. However, yesterday those

Jakub Novak 09:53 2025-08-08 UTC+2

The Tariff Theme Remains Dominant on the Markets. Demand for Stocks Is Expected to Rise (Possibility of Renewed Growth in #NDX and #SPX Contracts)

Donald Trump continues his frantic efforts to coerce countries and continents into submission to the U.S. as a global hegemon. The tariff theme remains dominant and fuels increased market volatility

Pati Gani 09:24 2025-08-08 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on August 8? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are no macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday. Therefore, market movements today are likely weak and non-trending. However, it's important to remember that Donald Trump remains the President

Paolo Greco 06:57 2025-08-08 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – August 8: Hanging by a Thread – Bank of England Decides to Cut Rates

On Thursday, the GBP/USD currency pair resumed its upward movement, even though the fundamental backdrop formally suggested the opposite. However, we warned that while the Bank of England meeting

Paolo Greco 03:31 2025-08-08 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – August 8: Tariff Clouds Are Gathering

The EUR/USD currency pair declined slightly from its recent highs on Thursday, but this move had no real impact on the pair's overall direction. Even though there is virtually

Paolo Greco 03:31 2025-08-08 UTC+2

Trump Won't Back Down—And Neither Will the Markets

What would have been an adequate reaction from the president in response to a weakening labor market? To change the policy that led to the labor market's decline. After

Chin Zhao 00:49 2025-08-08 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.