As of yesterday, US stock indices closed mixed. The S&P 500 fell by 0.40%, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.19%. The industrial Dow Jones dropped sharply by 0.98%.

During this morning's trading session, equity index futures declined as traders reassessed expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts following US inflation data that showed companies are beginning to pass some tariff-related costs on to consumers. Futures contracts on the S&P 500 fell by 0.3%. European futures declined after ASML Holding NV warned that tariff uncertainty is clouding the outlook. Asian equities also traded lower. Treasury bonds stabilized, with the 30-year yield still hovering around the 5% mark.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump stated that he is likely to impose tariffs on pharmaceutical products by the end of the month. Tariffs on semiconductors may also follow soon, suggesting that these import duties could take effect simultaneously with broad reciprocal rates set to begin on August 1.

These announcements sparked intense debate in economic circles, as they potentially affect entire industries and may provoke retaliatory measures from US trading partners. The pharmaceutical industry, already under pressure due to pricing and access issues, could face further difficulties, impacting both consumers and innovation. The introduction of tariffs on semiconductors, a key component of modern electronics, could lead to higher prices for gadgets and equipment, as well as disruptions in supply chains. This is especially significant amid the ongoing global semiconductor shortage, which is already negatively affecting various industries.

At the same time, traders have now priced in a lower probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates more than once this year, and the chances of a September cut are now seen as only slightly above 50%. While policymakers will likely need to keep rates steady for some time to fully contain inflation, they may also need to shift toward easing more quickly if inflation and the labor market weaken.

Against this backdrop, the Treasury bond market remains bearish. Fears about inflation risk fueled by tariffs and increased government spending in several of the world's largest economies are making investors increasingly nervous.

Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell should leave the Board of Governors at the end of his term in May 2026. Rumors are circulating that Kevin Hassett, one of President Donald Trump's senior economic advisers, is among the leading candidates to replace Powell as Fed Chair next year.

As for the technical picture of the S&P 500, the main task for buyers today will be to break through the nearest resistance at $6,234. This would signal growth and open the path toward the next level at $6,245. An equally important objective for the bulls will be to gain control over $6,257, which would strengthen their position. In the event of a downward move amid waning risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves near $6,223. A breakout below this area would quickly push the instrument back to $6,211 and open the road to $6,200.