GBP/USD 5-Minute Analysis
On Monday, as expected, the GBP/USD currency pair also moved upward. In recent weeks, the pair's behavior has been more sideways than upward, but at the same time, it has barely declined and continues to update local and three-year highs periodically. Thus, market sentiment and movement patterns remain essentially unchanged.
On Monday, the dollar experienced another decline due to the escalation of the war in the Middle East. In the past, during similar situations, the dollar was typically supported by strong market confidence, as it had long been regarded as a "safe haven" for investors. However, things have changed since Trump took office. Now, the dollar tends to fall at the slightest provocation: a new high-profile decision from Trump? The dollar drops. An increase in tariffs? It drops again. The Federal Reserve maintains interest rates while other central banks lower them? The dollar declines. A geopolitical conflict arises? The dollar continues to drop.
There was no macroeconomic background on Monday—but it wasn't needed. The price moved confidently in a single direction throughout most European and U.S. sessions.
Only one trading signal was formed yesterday—but it was more than enough to secure a solid profit. Just before the opening of the European session, the price bounced from the 1.3537–1.3543 area and continued upward throughout the day. Thus, the buy signal was very strong, and manually closing a long position in the evening could yield around 50 pips of profit. For a day that could have turned into a "boring Monday," this was a very good result.
COT Report
COT (Commitment of Traders) reports on the British pound show that commercial trader sentiment has fluctuated continuously in recent years. The red and blue lines representing net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders frequently cross and mostly hover near the zero mark. They are still close to each other, indicating an approximate balance of buy and sell positions. However, the net position has grown over the past year and a half.
The dollar continues to decline due to Trump's policies, so market makers' demand for the pound isn't particularly crucial at the moment. If the de-escalation of the global trade war resumes, the U.S. dollar could have a chance to rebound. According to the latest report on the British pound, the "Non-commercial" group opened 7,400 BUY contracts and closed 9,000 SELL contracts. As a result, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 16,400 thousand contracts over the reporting week—a significant gain.
Recently, the pound has strengthened sharply, but the reason is singular—Trump's policies. Once this factor is neutralized, the dollar may start to recover. But when will that happen? No one knows. Trump is still in the early phase of his presidency. What other shocks await in the next four years?
GBP/USD 1-Hour Analysis
In the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD maintains a bullish trend despite breaking below the ascending channel and trendline. The U.S. dollar again saw only a minor correction, and the market remains firmly focused on buying in the medium term. Not even the Middle East geopolitical conflict managed to support the dollar, so it still has little to lean on. Of course, if the trade war were to reverse and Trump began lifting tariffs and signing deals, things could change for the dollar. But at the moment, there is no hint of any such agreements.
For June 17, we highlight the following key levels: 1.3050, 1.3125, 1.3212, 1.3288, 1.3358, 1.3439, 1.3489, 1.3537, 1.3637–1.3667, 1.3741. The Senkou Span B (1.3514) and Kijun-sen (1.3547) lines can also serve as sources of signals. It is recommended to place a Stop Loss at breakeven once the price moves 20 pips in the intended direction. Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be considered when identifying trade signals.
On Tuesday, no macroeconomic or fundamental events are scheduled in the UK, while the U.S. will release two reports—on industrial production and retail sales. These are fairly important data points, but they are unlikely to outweigh the influence of geopolitics, politics, and the trade war. The British pound may pull back slightly, but it is supported from below by the Ichimoku indicator lines.
Illustration Explanations:
- Support and resistance price levels – thick red lines where movement may end. They are not trading signal sources.
- Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines—These are strong Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
- Extremum levels – thin red lines where the price has previously rebounded. These act as trading signal sources.
- Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.
- COT Indicator 1 on the charts – the size of the net position for each category of traders.
