empty
16.06.2025 12:38 AM
Euro Currency: Weekly Preview

This image is no longer relevant

The European currency continues to benefit from the weakness of the U.S. dollar, which became fully apparent after Donald Trump returned to the scene. Honestly, discussing how Trump—or the events triggered by him—continues to influence market movements every single day is becoming tiresome. However, it needs to be addressed because the U.S. president remains a central figure, not just for the currency market but for the entire world.

There were many events last week. The EU published several important reports, but who's paying attention to them now when everyday global events shake not only the markets but public sentiment as well? The more such upheavals occur, the weaker the dollar becomes. And as we've come to understand, there's only one reason for this.

Market participants currently ignore the European Central Bank's monetary policy easing, even as the Federal Reserve keeps its rate unchanged. As a result, even decent U.S. reports (like the Nonfarm Payrolls or unemployment rate) are dismissed by traders. In the upcoming week, the news landscape in the European Union will be notably weak. I won't delve into the inflation report for May or the economic sentiment indices, as they currently lack significance.

The market will remain focused on geopolitical conflicts, which only multiply over time. It will focus on the unrest in the U.S. and how it's being suppressed. It will be waiting for new Trump statements on fighting global trade injustice, for negotiations with China and the EU, and to see how the Israel-Iran conflict unfolds. These events will determine the dollar's fate—and, therefore, the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs. As for positive news for the greenback, it's hard to expect any. I believe the dollar will remain under pressure in the coming week.

This image is no longer relevant

Wave Analysis for EUR/USD:

Based on my EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair continues building a bullish trend segment. The wave count depends entirely on the news flow related to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. The targets for wave 3 could extend as far as the 1.25 area. Accordingly, I am considering long positions with targets around 1.1708, corresponding to the 127.2% Fibonacci level and higher. A de-escalation in the trade war could reverse the bullish trend downward, but currently, there are no signs of reversal or de-escalation.

This image is no longer relevant

Wave Analysis for GBP/USD:

The wave pattern for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with a bullish, impulsive trend segment. Under Trump, the markets could face many more shocks and reversals that do not align with any wave structure or technical analysis. However, the working scenario remains valid for now, and Trump continues to take actions that only reduce demand for the U.S. dollar. The targets for wave 3 are around the 1.3708 mark, corresponding to the 200.0% Fibonacci extension of the presumed global wave 2. Therefore, I continue to consider long positions, as the market has shown no willingness to reverse the trend yet.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are hard to trade and often lead to changes.
  2. If there's no confidence in the market situation, it's better to stay out.
  3. Absolute certainty in price direction doesn't exist and never will. Don't forget your Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Bank of England to Keep Rates Unchanged

Today, the Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates at 4.25% and signal that it is maintaining its approach of one cut every other meeting, as policymakers

Jakub Novak 11:02 2025-06-19 UTC+2

The Fed Maintains Its Previous Position

The U.S. dollar responded with growth, while risk assets such as the euro and pound declined. Following yesterday's meeting, Federal Reserve officials stated they expect two interest rate cuts

Jakub Novak 10:58 2025-06-19 UTC+2

The Iran-Israel War Has Yet to Exert Significant Negative Influence on Markets (Limited downside risk for gold and upward momentum for #USDX remains possible)

As expected, the U.S. central bank left all key monetary policy parameters unchanged, once again citing ongoing uncertainty about the future state of the national economy—a factor that has become

Pati Gani 09:14 2025-06-19 UTC+2

The Market Keeps Its Options Open

While the White House and the Federal Reserve are in wait-and-see mode, the market has also decided to hold steady. Donald Trump has yet to make a final decision

Marek Petkovich 09:08 2025-06-19 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on June 19? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Thursday. The only points of attention today will be Christine Lagarde's speeches and the results of the Bank of England meeting, which will

Paolo Greco 06:45 2025-06-19 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – June 19: UK Inflation and the Bank of England Meeting

The GBP/USD currency pair traded relatively calmly on Wednesday, though the day before, it had posted a substantial decline in the second half of the session—more than 100 pips

Paolo Greco 04:02 2025-06-19 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – June 19: Trump Continues to Work Wonders

The EUR/USD currency pair traded more calmly on Wednesday than the previous day. However, the previous day's significant movement also began only closer to the evening. It was not related

Paolo Greco 04:02 2025-06-19 UTC+2

GBP/USD. Inflation, the Bank of England, and Geopolitics

GBP/USD traders did not react to the UK inflation growth report that was published on Wednesday, just before the June Bank of England meeting. The focus of the market remains

Irina Manzenko 00:42 2025-06-19 UTC+2

The Canadian Dollar Still Looks Like a Favorite

Markets remain cautious as several high-impact events loom that could significantly alter the risk balance—namely, the FOMC meeting on Wednesday evening and a potential U.S. intervention in the war between

Kuvat Raharjo 00:42 2025-06-19 UTC+2

The Dollar Is Caught in a Vicious Cycle

The U.S. dollar has become an outcast—not just globally, but even at home. The White House supports everything from stock indices to Bitcoin and even gold through policy uncertainty

Marek Petkovich 00:42 2025-06-19 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.