empty
12.06.2025 10:15 AM
GBP/USD. June 12. British Economy Falters

Good day, dear traders! On the hourly chart, on Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair reversed in favor of the British pound and consolidated above the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3520. This opens the path for further growth toward the resistance zone of 1.3611–1.3620. A rebound from this zone will work in favor of the US dollar and lead to a slight decline toward 1.3520. Consolidation above the 1.3611–1.3620 zone will increase the likelihood of continued growth toward the next Fibonacci level at 200.0% – 1.3715.

This image is no longer relevant

Wave Analysis

The wave pattern indicates that the bullish trend remains intact. The last upward wave broke the previous high, while the last downward wave failed to breach the previous low. Bulls may find it difficult to count on further gains without new announcements from Donald Trump about introducing or increasing import tariffs. However, the US President remains ready to raise tariffs, confront immigrants, and pressure China. Thus, bulls have reasons for new attacks, but fresh catalysts are needed. A bearish trend would be confirmed only if the pair closes below 1.3425.

On Tuesday, UK labor market data (unemployment and wages) disappointed the bulls. However, the disappointment was short-lived because the US news background is significantly worse. So, no matter how poor things are in the UK, the US dollar still fails to gain ground. The unemployment rate in the UK rose, and the number of new jobless claims tripled traders' expectations. Nevertheless, the pound only dropped by 75 pips on this news, which it easily recovered on Wednesday following the US inflation report.

On Thursday, April's GDP came in at -0.3% MoM versus a forecast of -0.1%. Industrial production volumes fell by 0.6% MoM versus an expected -0.5%. Thus, the pound again has legitimate reasons to decline, but we may only see weak bearish attempts today, which could quickly fade, giving way to bullish momentum once more.

This image is no longer relevant

H4 Chart Outlook

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3435 and rebounded from it from above. The growth process could resume toward the next correction level of 127.2% – 1.3795 after another rebound from 1.3435 or without it. The bullish trend remains clear and uncontested, but a close below 1.3435 would signal a reversal toward the 76.4% level at 1.3118. No emerging divergences are observed in any indicators.

This image is no longer relevant

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category did not change significantly in the latest reporting week. The number of long positions increased by 1,281, and short positions increased by 1,445. Bears have long since lost their advantage in the market. The gap between long and short positions now stands at 35,000 in favor of the bulls: 103,000 vs. 68,000.

The pound still faces downside risks, but recent events have turned the market in a long-term bullish direction. Over the past three months, long contracts have increased from 65,000 to 103,000, while short positions have decreased from 76,000 to 68,000. Under Donald Trump, confidence in the US dollar has weakened, and the COT reports show that traders are not eager to buy it. Thus, regardless of the overall news background, the dollar continues to fall amid Trump-related developments.


News Calendar for the US and UK:

  • UK – GDP Change (07:00 London time)
  • UK – Industrial Production Change (7:00 London time)
  • US – Producer Price Index (13:30 London time)
  • US – Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 London time)

The economic calendar contains four entries on Thursday, two of which have already been released. The remaining news is expected to have a weak impact on market sentiment.


GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Advice:

  • Sell opportunities today may arise after a rebound from the resistance zone 1.3611–1.3620, with a target of 1.3520 or lower.
  • Buying around 1.3520 is not recommended, as this level is relatively weak.

Fibonacci Grids:

  • Built from 1.3205–1.2695 on the hourly chart
  • Built from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.
Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Forex forecast 20/06/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, Gold and Bitcoin

Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful

Sebastian Seliga 10:25 2025-06-20 UTC+2

EUR/USD Forecast for June 20, 2025

EUR/USD In the past 24 hours since the uneventful Federal Reserve meeting, the markets have shed their anxiety and resumed the broader risk-on trend. Even government bond yields are easing

Laurie Bailey 07:16 2025-06-20 UTC+2

AUD/USD Forecast for June 20, 2025

AUD/USD Yesterday, the Australian dollar pierced the MACD line with a lower shadow and nearly tested the support level at 0.6446. This morning's price movement above the MACD line offers

Laurie Bailey 07:16 2025-06-20 UTC+2

GBP/USD Forecast for June 20, 2025

GBP/USD On Wednesday and Thursday, the British pound tried to consolidate below the support level 1.3433 but was unsuccessful. The price is rising steadily, aiming to break above the MACD

Laurie Bailey 07:16 2025-06-20 UTC+2

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for June 19-22, 2025: sell below $3,390 (21 SMA - 8/8 Murray)

Early in the American session, the XAU/USD is trading around 3,370, below the 21 SMA under bearish pressure. We believe a technical rebound could occur in the coming hours

Dimitrios Zappas 15:14 2025-06-19 UTC+2

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for June 19-22, 2025: sell below 1.1535 (21 SMA - 8/8 Murray)

The outlook remains negative for the euro, as rising oil prices could pressure the European currency. In turn, we could expect EUR/USD to reach the 6/8 Murray level at 1.1230

Dimitrios Zappas 14:57 2025-06-19 UTC+2

Forex forecast 19/06/2025: EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, Oil and Bitcoin

Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful

Sebastian Seliga 13:52 2025-06-19 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement EUR/GBP Cross Currency Pairs, Thursday June 19, 2025.

With the movement of the EUR/GBP price on its 4-hour chart moving above the WMA (21) which has a slope that is going upwards and the appearance of convergence between

Arief Makmur 11:45 2025-06-19 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Daily Price Movement of Nasdaq 100 Index, Thursday June 19, 2025.

Although on its daily chart the Nasdaq 100 index appears to be moving above the WMA (30 Shift 2) which has a slope that is going upwards, but being stuck

Arief Makmur 11:45 2025-06-19 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on June 19, 2025

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair resumed its decline after a short pause and by Thursday morning settled right around the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1454. A rebound from this

Samir Klishi 11:20 2025-06-19 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.