Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen
The test of the 144.21 level occurred when the MACD indicator began to move upward from the zero mark. This confirmed a valid entry point for buying the dollar, and the pair rose toward the target area of 144.59.
Today, traders will closely monitor the progress of trade negotiations between China and the United States and data on the change in machinery orders in Japan. The outcome of these talks could significantly impact global economic forecasts and influence investor sentiment worldwide. Any positive signals indicating that the parties are moving closer to an agreement could spark optimism and increase demand for the U.S. dollar, while a breakdown in negotiations or a rise in tensions may trigger a sell-off in USD/JPY.
Japan's machinery orders data is an indicator of economic activity that reflects businesses' intentions to invest in the expansion and modernization of production capacities. Growth in orders typically indicates optimistic business expectations about future conditions and supports further economic development. Conversely, a decline in orders may signal slowing business activity and a worsening outlook.
For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Scenario
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point of around 144.68 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 145.23 (thicker green line). Near 145.23, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip pullback). It's best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY.
Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 144.35 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 144.68 and 145.23.
Sell Scenario
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY only after the price breaks below 144.35 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 143.90, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip rebound). Selling pressure may return to the pair quickly today.
Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 144.68 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 144.35 and 143.90.
What's on the Chart:
- The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
- The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
- The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
- The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
- The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.
Important Notes:
- Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
- Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.
