Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro
The price test at 1.1410 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line. This confirmed the correct entry point for selling the euro and resulted in a decline of more than 35 pips.
At the beginning of June, the American economy pleasantly surprised market participants and experts. Published non-farm employment data exceeded forecasts, demonstrating the resilience of the U.S. economy. This positive news immediately impacted the currency market, causing a sharp rise in the dollar against the euro and other major currencies. Optimism was further supported by the consistently low unemployment rate (4.2%). This figure indicates that the U.S. labor market remains strong and competitive despite global economic turbulence.
Today, there is no economic data from the eurozone countries, nor are any speeches by European Central Bank representatives scheduled, which may help the euro recover in the short term after Friday's sell-off. The absence of macroeconomic drivers and regulator commentary allows the market to reassess recent events and potentially correct overly negative sentiment toward the single European currency. However, relying solely on the absence of negative news would be reckless. The long-term prospects for the euro remain uncertain, considering low inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, and the ECB's moves to lower interest rates. The market will be sensitive to any signals coming from other sources — whether news from the U.S. regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy or developments in the situation with U.S. tariffs.
For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Scenario
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro if the price reaches an area of around 1.1430 (green line on the chart) with a target to rise to the level of 1.1466. At 1.1466, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a 30-35 pip move from the entry point. Betting on the euro's growth is possible within the framework of the upward trend. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1410 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1430 and 1.1466.
Sell Scenario
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1410 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1380 level, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (targeting a 20-25 pip move in the opposite direction). Pressure on the pair will return today if no buyers near daily highs. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and beginning to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1430 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1410 and 1.1380.
What's on the Chart:
- The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
- The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
- The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
- The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
- The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.
Important Notes:
- Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
- Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.
