empty
06.06.2025 08:21 AM
Forecast for EUR/USD on June 6, 2025

Yesterday, the ECB as expected cut key rates by a quarter point, bringing the refinancing rate to 2.15%. At the press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that rates have returned to a normal state, and market participants are now not expecting more than one additional rate cut before the end of the year. As a result, the euro rose by 26 points. This increase marked the consolidation of the price above the target level of 1.1420, opening the path to the next target at 1.1535. A consolidation above this level will set the next target at 1.1692.

This image is no longer relevant

The main event of the day will be the release of U.S. employment data. The Nonfarm Payrolls forecast is 127K, with the unemployment rate expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. Wednesday's ADP report slightly alarmed investors — only 37K jobs were created in May — but based on weekly jobless claims, we remain calm and expect Nonfarm figures close to the consensus forecast. For the euro, GDP and employment data for the first quarter and April's retail sales will also be important, as mass bankruptcies in Germany (11% year-over-year), already surpassing the number during the 2008 crisis, threaten 210K jobs. As long as the price stays above the MACD line (1.1375), the euro's upward sentiment will be maintained.

This image is no longer relevant

On the H4 chart, the price is moving above the balance and MACD indicator lines, but a divergence has already formed between the price and the Marlin oscillator. A consolidation below the 1.1420 level could drag Marlin into negative territory, putting the 1.1375 level at risk. We are awaiting not just the release of key data from Europe and the U.S., but also the market's overall reaction to this data. A new trend may begin as early as Monday. The indicator will be the U.S. stock index S&P 500.

Laurie Bailey,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.