empty
26.05.2025 12:49 AM
U.S. Dollar: Weekly Preview

This image is no longer relevant

The U.S. dollar remains at the center of attention and "at the head of the table." It is the first currency to respond to changes in Donald Trump's foreign and trade policies, prompting other currencies to adjust in response. This is why news from the U.S. tends to have a more significant impact on the markets compared to developments in Europe or the United Kingdom.

Unfortunately, economic news has recently lost much of its relevance. However, the upcoming week will begin not on Monday but Sunday, with a speech by FOMC Chair Jerome Powell. It's not difficult to guess what Powell will say — for months, he has been repeating the same message: Inflation in the U.S. is expected to accelerate due to Trump's tariff policy, and the Federal Reserve cannot afford to cut rates just yet. The Fed prefers to wait until mid-summer to fully assess the impact of tariffs, allowing economic indicators to reflect the true extent of the damage.

Moreover, Trump's tariff policy remains unsettled. On Friday, he announced plans to raise tariffs on EU goods to 50%. It's unclear whether the President was serious or if he might reverse his position as early as Monday — which is entirely possible. The fact remains: tariffs could rise again, and the Fed may need even more time to assess the fallout.

This image is no longer relevant

On Tuesday, we can expect the report on the durable goods orders. On Wednesday, the FOMC Minutes will be published. Thursday will bring the second preliminary estimate of the first quarter GDP. Finally, the core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) price index will be released on Friday. As a result, we will have interesting information from the US almost every day.

I believe that much of this information will go unnoticed by the market, as it will likely be focused on anticipating Trump's upcoming statements about trade tariffs expected at the beginning of the week. Additionally, it will be interesting to see how the European Union responds to the new threats from the US president.

EUR/USD Wave Structure:

Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, the pair continues to develop a bullish wave structure. In the near term, the wave formation will depend entirely on the news background, especially Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. And Trump, as we can see, is intent on continuing the fight. Wave 3 of the upward cycle has begun, with targets potentially extending toward the 1.25 area. Therefore, I continue to consider buying opportunities, with targets above 1.1572, corresponding to the 423.6% Fibonacci extension. It's important to keep in mind that a de-escalation of the trade war could reverse the uptrend, but at the moment, there are no signs of reversal or de-escalation.

This image is no longer relevant

GBP/USD Wave Structure:

The wave structure for GBP/USD has evolved. We are now dealing with a bullish impulse wave. Unfortunately, under Donald Trump, markets may still face many shocks and trend reversals that defy wave theory and technical analysis. However, everything is unfolding in line with the updated wave scenario. The pair is still developing wave 3 of the uptrend, with near-term targets at 1.3541 and 1.3714. Therefore, I continue to focus on long positions, as the market has no desire to reverse the trend again.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are hard to interpret and often change unpredictably.
  2. If there is no confidence in the market setup, it's better not to enter a position.
  3. Absolute certainty in price direction is impossible. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can and should be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The Japanese yen is showing weakness against the stronger U.S. dollar, with the USD/JPY pair reaching a new monthly high. This rise in the dollar against the yen is mainly

Irina Yanina 20:12 2025-06-19 UTC+2

Bank of England to Keep Rates Unchanged

Today, the Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates at 4.25% and signal that it is maintaining its approach of one cut every other meeting, as policymakers

Jakub Novak 11:02 2025-06-19 UTC+2

The Fed Maintains Its Previous Position

The U.S. dollar responded with growth, while risk assets such as the euro and pound declined. Following yesterday's meeting, Federal Reserve officials stated they expect two interest rate cuts

Jakub Novak 10:58 2025-06-19 UTC+2

The Iran-Israel War Has Yet to Exert Significant Negative Influence on Markets (Limited downside risk for gold and upward momentum for #USDX remains possible)

As expected, the U.S. central bank left all key monetary policy parameters unchanged, once again citing ongoing uncertainty about the future state of the national economy—a factor that has become

Pati Gani 09:14 2025-06-19 UTC+2

The Market Keeps Its Options Open

While the White House and the Federal Reserve are in wait-and-see mode, the market has also decided to hold steady. Donald Trump has yet to make a final decision

Marek Petkovich 09:08 2025-06-19 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on June 19? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Thursday. The only points of attention today will be Christine Lagarde's speeches and the results of the Bank of England meeting, which will

Paolo Greco 06:45 2025-06-19 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – June 19: UK Inflation and the Bank of England Meeting

The GBP/USD currency pair traded relatively calmly on Wednesday, though the day before, it had posted a substantial decline in the second half of the session—more than 100 pips

Paolo Greco 04:02 2025-06-19 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – June 19: Trump Continues to Work Wonders

The EUR/USD currency pair traded more calmly on Wednesday than the previous day. However, the previous day's significant movement also began only closer to the evening. It was not related

Paolo Greco 04:02 2025-06-19 UTC+2

GBP/USD. Inflation, the Bank of England, and Geopolitics

GBP/USD traders did not react to the UK inflation growth report that was published on Wednesday, just before the June Bank of England meeting. The focus of the market remains

Irina Manzenko 00:42 2025-06-19 UTC+2

The Canadian Dollar Still Looks Like a Favorite

Markets remain cautious as several high-impact events loom that could significantly alter the risk balance—namely, the FOMC meeting on Wednesday evening and a potential U.S. intervention in the war between

Kuvat Raharjo 00:42 2025-06-19 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.