empty
09.12.2024 01:19 PM
Forecast for GBP/USD on December 9, 2024

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Friday rose toward the resistance zone of 1.2788–1.2801, rebounded from it, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and returned to the support zone of 1.2709–1.2734. Consolidation below this zone could pave the way for a continuation of the decline toward the 1.2611–1.2620 zone and possibly signal the end of the bullish trend. A rebound from the 1.2709–1.2734 zone would maintain the bullish trend and allow for a return to the 1.2788–1.2801 level.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure raises no questions. A new upward wave broke the peak of the previous wave, while the last completed downward wave did not breach the prior low. This suggests the potential completion of the bearish trend and the start of a bullish one. However, I believe the bullish trend could remain weak. Last week, the bulls attacked confidently despite the mixed information background.

Friday brought plenty of news. The Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment reports provided no clear direction for the dollar. However, wage growth and consumer sentiment reports tilted the scales positively. Wages rose by 4% YoY, exceeding forecasts and posing a threat to further declines in the Consumer Price Index. This increases the likelihood of rising U.S. inflation for November and reduces the probability of the FOMC easing monetary policy in December—positive news for the dollar.

Additionally, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index increased from 71.8 to 74.0, surpassing trader expectations. As a result, the "supplementary" reports drew market attention to the positive aspects of the Nonfarm Payrolls data rather than the negative unemployment figures. Traders now await the upcoming inflation report, which could clarify expectations ahead of the Fed meeting. While the market still anticipates another rate cut, surprises could be in store.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has returned to the 61.8% retracement level at 1.2728 and consolidated above it. This opens the door for continued growth toward the next retracement level at 50.0%, or 1.2861. Conversely, a consolidation below 1.2728 could signal the resumption of the bearish trend clearly visible on the 4H chart.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

This image is no longer relevant

The sentiment among non-commercial traders has become less bullish over the past reporting week. Long positions decreased by 403 positions, while short positions increased by 1,905 positions. Although bulls still hold the advantage, it is diminishing noticeably in recent months. The gap between long and short positions now stands at just 19,000 positions (98,000 vs. 79,000).

Over the last three months, long positions have dropped from 160,000 to 98,000, while short positions have risen from 52,000 to 79,000. This suggests professional players may continue reducing their long positions or increasing shorts over time, as all possible bullish factors for the pound seem to have been priced in. Graphical analysis also supports a decline in the pound.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and UKMonday's economic calendar has no significant entries, meaning the informational background will have no influence on trader sentiment today.

Forecast and Trading Tips for GBP/USDSelling the pair was possible after a rebound from the 1.2788–1.2801 zone on the hourly chart, targeting 1.2709–1.2734. This target was achieved on Friday. New sales are possible if the pair closes below 1.2709–1.2734, with a target of 1.2611–1.2620. At this time, I would avoid considering purchases, although there is no clear evidence yet of the current bullish trend ending.

Fibonacci levels are plotted from 1.3000–1.3432 on the hourly chart and from 1.2299–1.3432 on the 4-hour chart.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Grigory Sokolov
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

148.91 currently becomes the main target for USD/JPY to test in the near future, Tuesday, July 29, 2025.

USD/JPY – Tuesday, July 29, 2025. Based on the Golden Cross position on the EMA (50) and EMA (200), it indicates a dominant bullish bias in USD/JPY. However

Arief Makmur 06:55 2025-07-29 UTC+2

Cable is attempting to test and break through the 1.3316 support level on Tuesday, July 29, 2025.

GBP/USD – Tuesday, July 29, 2025. The Death Cross condition of the EMA (50) which is below EMA(200) and the neutral bearish RSI (14) indicates that the GBP/USD bearish bias

Arief Makmur 06:55 2025-07-29 UTC+2

EUR/USD Forecast for July 29, 2025

After yesterday's drop of more than 160 pips due to a highly unfavorable trade deal between the EU and the U.S., the euro's chances of rising toward the upper boundary

Laurie Bailey 05:02 2025-07-29 UTC+2

GBP/USD Forecast for July 29, 2025

By the end of yesterday, the British pound declined by 82 pips, breaking through the target support at 1.3369. Today's session opened below this level, and a daily close beneath

Laurie Bailey 05:02 2025-07-29 UTC+2

USD/JPY Forecast for July 29, 2025

The USD/JPY pair continues its upward movement toward the target level of 149.38, which is signaled by the unclosed gap from July 21. If the price breaks through this resistance

Laurie Bailey 05:02 2025-07-29 UTC+2

GBP/USD. Technical Analysis for the Week of July 28 – August 2

Last week, the pair moved upward and tested the historical resistance level at 1.3591 (blue dashed line), then reversed and closed the weekly candle at 1.3435. In the upcoming week

Stefan Doll 19:16 2025-07-28 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Technical Analysis for the Week of July 28 – August 2

Last week, the pair moved upward and tested the upper fractal at 1.1790 (weekly candle from July 6, 2025), after which the price turned downward, closing the weekly candle

Stefan Doll 19:12 2025-07-28 UTC+2

Forex forecast 28/07/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, Gold, Ethereum and Bitcoin

Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful

Sebastian Seliga 11:32 2025-07-28 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

At the start of the new week during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair attempted to remain positive, but during the European session, prices fell below the 1.1750 level amid

Irina Yanina 11:13 2025-07-28 UTC+2

EUR/USD – July 28th: The EU and U.S. Reach an Agreement

On Friday, the EUR/USD pair returned to the 127.2% retracement level at 1.1712 and rebounded from it. This suggests that the upward movement may continue toward the next level

Samir Klishi 10:58 2025-07-28 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.